Climate stress test for nature reserves and farmland north of the North Sea Canal
Climate change is impacting nature and farming. In the years ahead, the availability of fresh water will be jeopardised, and the risk of crop failure will increase. For that reason, the province of Noord-Holland has commissioned a climate stress test of common crops and nature north of the North Sea Canal. This is a first step in the exploration of the impact of climate change in this area. The province is going to use the outcomes in the purview of a risk dialogue with stakeholders.
What has been examined?
This climate stress provides insight into the main risks and opportunities for six sub-areas: the island of Texel, the Northern Sandy Soils, the Wieringermeer polder, West-Friesland, North Kennemerland inner dunes, and Laag Holland. Sweco Consultants and Wageningen University & Research Centre have jointly conducted the stress test. With respect to farming, the impact of climate change has been studied by reference to several typical crops. The assumption is that other crops within this same type will be affected by similar climate effects. With respect to nature, the impact of climate change on management categories has been mapped out. Management categories are well-defined categories of nature comprising a wide range of animal and plant species. The province of Noord-Holland features 60 management categories. Examples include open farmland, grassland, and meadow bird grassland.
What are the main risks for agriculture?
Climate change is reducing crop yield. Several causes can be identified:
- Several locations in the province of Noord-Holland are prone to salinisation: the soil is gradually becoming more saline. Currently, the freshwater supply is sufficient to counteract this risk. However, as periods of drought are increasing in both frequency and length, combating salinisation will be increasingly difficult, in particular at the Northern Sandy Soils;
- As a result of more extreme weather, waterlogging poses a threat to farming. Hail, severe downpours, and heatwaves may cause crops to fail;
- The diminishing frequency of sharp winter frosts is conducive to diseases and blight. In addition, the decrease in sharp frosts will have a negative impact on the soil structure;
- Warm and wet summers will give rise to more blight and diseases. This will cause particular problems in the cultivation of potatoes, carrots, and tulips.
What are the main risks for nature?
The main risks for nature are drought and salinisation. Waterlogging following severe downpours poses less of a risk, because severe downpours tend to be of short duration. The risks in terms of drought and salinisation are listed below:
- Drought exacerbates the effects of acidification and overfertilisation, thus supplanting lean nature;
- Drought and heat exacerbate fire risks;
- The inner dune borders, such as the wet nature in the Texel dunes, are particularly prone to drought. In the Laag Holland peat grassland areas, drought causes soil subsidence and thus irreparable damage to nature;
- In Noord-Holland, salinisation poses less of a risk to nature compared to other areas in the Netherlands. Take peat moss reed land, which benefits from salinisation. Yet salinisation also poses a risk here: trees are particularly sensitive to salt;
- In excessively dry periods or when there is a risk of salinisation, water from other areas is sometimes used. However, non-local water is often harmful to nature.
Recommendations regarding the risk dialogue
Following the outcomes of the stress test, Sweco Consultants and Wageningen University & Research Centre have drawn up some recommendations regarding the risk dialogue:
- Continue with an approach specifically geared to each sub-area and widen the scope of your efforts. This enables you to tackle the climate effects together with the stakeholders, and to tie in with other important taskings in the rural areas;
- Capitalise on opportunities for water storage in nature reserves;
- Climate-proof the agriculture sector by using technology and innovation, by reinforcing and sharing know-how on natural disease and blight control, by elaborating circular farming, and by gaining more insight into required adaptations and financial resilience;
- Aim for more resilient nature that can easily adapt to changing circumstances;
- Monitor the effects;
- Factor in national and international choices and legislation.
Special features
The stress test has demonstrated that climate change will also have a major impact on rural areas. For that reason, it is important to explore, in collaboration with stakeholders, how each individual area can be rendered climate adaptive. This calls for a customised approach. Waterlogging, heat, and drought impact the management categories and types of nature in different ways, but this also extends to type of subsoil, land use, and biotic and abiotic factors such as water quality. The agriculture transition tasking and enhancing biodiversity are related to climate change. Other considerations to be reviewed in this context include, e.g., how to combat harmful exotic species and how to secure a sufficient supply of water to protect wet nature.
Lessons to be learned
Climate change is going to change the province of Noord-Holland. The agriculture sector is innovative and flexible. Nature, however, is bound by the European targets (Natura 2000). Those targets are primarily focused on the restoration of current species, without taking account of climate change. Great gains are still to be made here.
Contact person
Annebet van Duinen
Provincie Noord-Holland
klimaatadaptatie@noord-holland.nl